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发表于 2011-12-21 19:16:43
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VOX POPULI: Kim Jong Il's death puts neighbors on
The term "Kremlinology" was once used to describe methods to try to understand the inner workings of politics and hierarchy of power in the Soviet Union by analyzing tidbits of information and signs, such as the order in which high-ranking Kremlin officials stood as they reviewed parades in Red Square. While the term is rarely used nowadays, North Korea remains beyond a veil where such a way to try to find out what is really going on in that reclusive country is still applied.
Just the other day, the disappearance of a TV broadaster from North Korean television for more than 50 days touched off speculation that something unusual might be taking place in Pyongyang. But when she finally reappeared Dec. 19, she wore black and tearfully announced the death of North Korea's supreme leader, Kim Jong Il.
The second-generation leader of the "Kim Dynasty" ruled over a completely socialist dictatorship and put the military before anything else. The North Korean people are exhausted from oppression and destitution. Last year, Foreign Policy, the U.S. magazine that specializes in foreign affairs, named Kim the world's worst dictator in its ranking of dictators.
A number of dictators were ousted this year after the "Arab Spring" protests shook the Arab world. The driving force behind it was "the power of the people," whereas the dictator in Pyongyang fell from power because of illness. This year marked "positive" and "negative" turning points.
North Korea was quick to declare succession of power to the third-generation heir, Kim Jong Un. But little is known about his qualities and abilities. If he proves to be incompetent, the North Korean people are the ones who will suffer the most, while international society must also bear the brunt of his ineptitude. Whether Japanese citizens abducted by North Korean agents can be rescued early also largely depends on the new leader.
There is no guarantee that missiles will not be fired at other countries in the confusion of a power struggle or a display of loyalty to the heir. We need to analyze what little information is spilled through openings of the veil and guess what is actually happening with "ifs" and "thens." We have to stay alert.
--The Asahi Shimbun, Dec. 20 |
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